F2题库_2019年acca考试F2第12章模拟练习题(1)
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1.Using an additive time series model, the quarterly trend (Y) is given by 丫 = 65 + 7t, where t is the quarter (starting with t = 1 in the first quarter of 20X5). If the seasonal component in the fourth quarter is -30, what is the forecast for the actual value for the fourth quarter of 20X6, to the nearest whole number?
A. 63
B. 546
C. 85
D. 91 (2 marks)
2. The trend for monthly sales ($ 丫) is related to the month (t) by the equation Y = 1,500 - 3t where t = 1 in the first month of 20X8. What are the forecast sales (to the nearest dollar) for the first month of 20X9
if the seasonal component for that month is 0.92 using a multiplicative model?
A.$1,377
B.$17,904
C.$1,344
D.$1,462
1.The correct answer is : 91
If t = 1 in the first quarter of 20X5
t = 8 in the fourth quarter of 20X6
Trend (Y) = 65 + (7 x 8)
=121
Forecast = trend + seasonal component
=121 + (-30)
=121-30
=91
2. The correct answer is : $1,344
In the first month of 20X9, t = 13
丫 = $1,500 -$(3 x 13)
=$1,461
Forecast = trend x seasonal component
=$1,461 x0.92
=$1,344
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